A new scientific analysis suggests even a small amount of alcohol is unsafe when it comes to cancer risk. The researchers found that the negative health impacts of alcohol start with any level of use, and increase as consumption goes up.
This analysis, called the Alcohol Intake & Health Study, was funded by the U.S. government to inform an update of the Dietary Guidelines for Americans for 2025–2030. A draft report was released in January and posted online for public comment.
But federal health officials do not intend to submit the final report to Congress as planned, says Tim Naimi, MD, MPH, a study coauthor and director of the Canadian Institute for Substance Use Research at the University of Victoria in British Columbia.
A representative for the U.S. Department for Health and Human Services (HHS) did not respond to a request for comment by deadline.
Current U.S. dietary guidelines advise limiting alcohol to two drinks or fewer per day for men and one drink or less per day for women. Based on the new analysis, Dr. Naimi calls that recommendation “quite risky.”
Low Levels of Alcohol Linked With Elevated Risk of Cancer
The analysis features an in-depth breakdown of existing research, along with statistical models based on the American population. The researchers organized the data by how many drinks people had daily.
The researchers discovered that men and women have a 1 in 1,000 chance of dying from alcohol use if they consume more than seven drinks a week. This risk increases to 1 in 100 if they consume more than nine drinks per week.
The report also links alcohol use with a higher risk of death from seven forms of cancer: colorectal, breast, liver, oral, pharynx, larynx, and esophagus.
“We found that the risk of developing an alcohol-related cancer starts with any alcohol use, and increases with higher levels of use, and that women have a greater risk of an alcohol-related cancer when drinking the same amount as men, mostly driven by the strong association between alcohol use and breast cancer,” says Priscilla Martinez, PhD, a study coauthor and deputy scientific director of the Alcohol Research Group.
Findings Line Up With Growing Scientific Consensus
The draft report hasn’t yet been peer-reviewed, which is a common step in research submitted to academic journals in order to ensure accuracy. (The researchers are planning to pursue publication.)
Still, cancer specialists say the findings are credible. “It has been known for decades that even low levels of alcohol can increase risk above no intake at all,” says Kathleen Egan, ScD, cancer epidemiologist at Moffitt Cancer Center in Tampa, Florida. “The more alcohol you drink, the greater the excess risk.”
Nilesh Vora, MD, oncologist and medical director of the MemorialCare Todd Cancer Institute at Long Beach Medical Center in California, agrees, saying the findings are “not surprising.”
“We’ve always known that alcohol has been a risk factor for cancer,” says Dr. Vora. “What’s interesting about this study is that it’s 81 pages long. It goes into a much deeper level of establishing a link between the development of cancer and alcohol intake.”
A study released by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2021 found that nearly 750,000 cancer cases diagnosed worldwide in 2020 — about 4 percent — could be attributed to alcohol. Light and moderate drinking made up more than 100,000 of those cases.
In January 2025, then-U.S. Surgeon General Vivek Murthy, MD, released an advisory that called for updated warnings on alcoholic beverages, noting that drinking alcohol raises the risk of several types of cancer.
But results of a scientific survey published by the National Cancer Institute in 2023 found that most Americans aren’t aware of the link between alcohol and cancer. For those that are aware of the link, some mistakenly believe that wine is exempt from this association.
Americans Are Drinking Less
Ultimately, Naimi says, people should make their own choices around alcohol and health, but it’s important that they make informed decisions. “It’s really important that people are advocates for their own health and get good scientific information.” he says.
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