Although the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) currently categorizes the overall rate of respiratory illness activity in the United States as “very low,” recent federal data show that COVID levels are growing or likely growing in at least 26 states and the District of Columbia.
The Walgreens COVID-19 Index, which tracks data from tests taken at its retail locations, also indicates that illnesses are on the upswing in much of the country.
Nationally, wastewater viral activity level for COVID-19 is currently low, but levels have been rising since earlier in the summer. Levels are currently “very high” in California, Utah, Louisiana, Texas, Florida, and South Carolina.
The weekly percentage of emergency department visits due to COVID-19 inched up from 0.3 percent in mid-June to 0.5 percent in mid-July. The CDC highlighted that young children, ranging from newborns to 4-year-olds, accounted for many of those needing emergency care.
Wastewater data suggests more viral activity may be coming our way. Even when people with COVID-19 don’t have symptoms, their bodies shed viral material in toilets, showers, and sinks. These viral fragments end up in wastewater, which can serve as an early indicator of disease trends.
Nationally, the virus concentration in wastewater has increased by 22 percent over the week ending July 12, as per CDC monitoring.
A Summer Surge Is Expected
“Although we’ve had much larger increases in the winter, I think this is typical of the increases that we’ve seen in previous summers,” says Aaron Glatt, MD, chief of infectious diseases at Mount Sinai South Nassau hospital in Oceanside, New York, and a spokesperson for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. “Most people who do get the virus, however, are not likely to get seriously ill because of prior vaccination or prior illness,” Dr. Glatt says.
He adds that the number of infections is likely much higher than reported, because fewer people are getting tested. “I think people aren’t as interested in getting tested as in the past because most are having upper respiratory tract symptoms similar to a cold, and they’re not getting any sicker than that,” Glatt says. “So they may have COVID, but it’s not being identified.”
Why Does COVID Surge in Summer?
Several possible factors may be fueling the summer upswing, according to public health experts.
Peter Chin-Hong, MD, an infectious disease specialist and a professor of medicine at the University of California San Francisco School of Medicine, notes that viral spread can take off in the warmer months as more people travel and come together indoors to escape extreme heat.
Plus, the coronavirus is constantly mutating, producing new versions that have been able to evade immune protection from vaccination or previous infection.
He expects an increase in COVID cases throughout the summer and into early fall, when cases tend to taper off before a winter wave comes along.
Protections Against Serious Illness Remain Strong
Chin-Hong adds that the main variants currently circulating are all related to the omicron strain, which is the latest available vaccine target. He expects a revised shot to be available in the fall, but doesn’t anticipate that the updated vaccine will be much different from last year’s formula.
Because of recent changes in the CDC’s recommendations for COVID vaccine eligibility, “I am worried that the updated vaccine may not be as easy to get as in previous years without cost, except in the age group of 65 and older, and perhaps for those with comorbidities [other serious illnesses],” says Chin-Hong. “Children should also be able to get it after consultation with a health care provider, but it’s not clear if healthy pregnant people will be able to get the COVID shot in the fall.”
How to Prevent COVID-19
Because COVID-19 is still with us, Robert H. Hopkins Jr., MD, medical director of the National Foundation for Infectious Diseases (NFID), encourages everyone to keep up with practices that help limit the spread of this highly transmissible virus.
“As both a doctor and a dad, I always remind my patients — and my own family — that the following list of simple habits can go a long way in helping to prevent the spread of COVID-19 and other respiratory illnesses,” says Dr. Hopkins:
- Get vaccinated. The evidence clearly shows that COVID-19 vaccination remains the safest and most effective way to protect against severe disease and death from COVID-19.
- Wash your hands regularly with soap and water.
- Try not to touch your eyes, nose, or mouth.
- Cover coughs and sneezes with a tissue, or your elbow if you do not have a tissue available.
- Regularly clean and disinfect frequently touched objects and surfaces.
- Keep your distance from people who are sick, and stay home if you are not feeling well
- Consider wearing a mask in crowded or indoor spaces, especially if you are at high risk for severe disease.
- Improve air flow by opening windows or going outdoors.
- Be aware of current disease trends in your area by using publicly available data from the CDC or WastewaterSCAN Dashboard.
“Often, a little effort can make a big difference for your health and the health of those around you,” says Hopkins. “If you have questions about COVID-19 vaccination, talk with a trusted healthcare professional who knows your family’s medical history and can help you decide what is best for you and your family.”
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